• Even Carville Senses It’s Over.  Tells college audience, “I think the great likelihood is that Obama will be the nominee.”  When Carville sends in his check to Obama, will he apologize to Richardson?

• Brand-obsessed House GOP selects slogan already in use for antidepressant drug: “The Change You Deserve.” Given the GOP’s performance to date, coincidence?
• Drip, Drip Drip. Obama lands endorsement of Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN).  Meanwhile, a MD pledged delegate, PG County Executive Jack Johnson, announced that he has switched to Obama.  In addition, he said he plans to encourage other Clinton-pledged delegates in MD to switch to Obama in the name of party unity.  Of course, Hillary opened this door when she argued earlier that pledged delegates were free to switch.  Former CO Governor and DNC Chairman Roy Romer and New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin add two more superdelegates to the day’s tally.
• E.J. Dionne: Hillary’s continuation of her campaign comes at a high price.
• Hillary spread around lots of “walk around money” in Texas to GOTV.
• WaPo/ABC Poll: Americans’ outlook about direction of country gloomiest since 1992 — more than 80% believe country heading in wrong direction. Democrats hold biggest advantage over GOP since early 1993 as party best able to handle the country’s major issues (a 21-point advantage). Bush’s ratings at an all-time low.
• Obama picks up Anita Bonds of DC as a superdelegate. That’s five for Monday.
• Obama campaign volunteers sometimes encounter racism on the streets and door to door that contrasts sharply with adoring crowds at large events.
• Obama turns his attention to general election.
• Where Obama will be over the next two weeks? (hint: not Kentucky).
• Pro-GOP voters for Hillary cost Obama a victory in Indiana, which kept Hillary from conceding last Tuesday.

MoveOn.Org sponsored a contest called “Obama in 30 Seconds” in which folks were encouraged to create their own Obama ad. The winning ad would be funded by MoveOn.org to be aired on television as a campaign ad. This is the winning ad.

It’s not a bad ad, but it’s too “2004″ and out of synch with 2008. In 2004, Democrats picked decorated Vietnam veteran John Kerry on an “electability” argument — that he had the right military credentials to compete with Bush while combat operations were going on in Afghanistan and Iraq. This ad is consistent with that kind of message: “I’m a right wing meat-eating gung ho military guy who wants to vote for the Democrat.”

But that’s not Obama’s message and that’s not this year’s message. Hillary’s vote for the Iraq war probably cost her the Democratic nomination. A solid majority of Americans believe Iraq is a mistake and we need to get the troops out sooner rather than later (the minority who want the troops to stay indefinitely are the most committed GOP voters who would never vote for Obama anyway).

This is a change year. This is a year where millions of new voters who normally don’t bother to participate have registered and are motivated to vote. This should be a confident message about why Obama; why now. Not “look at me, I’m a poster child for the GOP who wants to vote for Obama.” I don’t even know why this guy wants to vote for Obama.

Is it harmful? No. Will it help with some voters. Maybe. But it’s a missed opportunity and its out of synch. It’s also not a confident message — it’s too defensive and insecure. It should play to Obama’s strengths in a change year, not to perceived weaknesses.

UPDATE: Actually, this video strikes a better note. It won for being the “Most Original” video in the contest.

• Newsweek cover story on Obama’s upcoming battle with McCain.
• New SUSA Poll has Obama up 54-43% in Oregon, a 5-point bounce since last poll.
• House GOP’s new slogan is already used by an antidepressant drug: “The Change You Deserve.”
• New WaPo/ABC Poll. Obama leads McCain by 51-44%. Elected someone age 72 is a problem for 39% of voters, while electing a woman is a problem for 16% and an African American, 12%. As for the old Rev. Wright thing, 60% of all Americans and 73% of Democrats think Obama handled it just “right.” And almost forgot, Obama leads Hillary 53-41%.
• Obama goes on the offensive against McCain on climate change as McCain tries to refashion himself as green to woo independent voters.
• Brilliant Move by Obama in WVA Today. Frank Rich wrote yesterday that the GOP’s biggest mistake has been treating this election as if it were framed by the same old polarized divisions of the 1970s or ’80s. It is a different time and many of the voters of that era are now in their sixties and seventies. Obama recognizes where we are. In WVA today, in front of an audience of Vietnam veterans, he denounces how many in the Sixties were unfairly critical of the soldiers who returned from Vietnam. He makes it clear that it was wrong and should not be repeated. Obama was born in the Sixties - he wasn’t a part of that time - and he is not going to be a captive of those old debates.
• Daily Tracking Polls. Obama maintains 10-point lead in Rasmussen, 52-42%. Gallup shows biggest Obama lead since mid-April, 50-43%.
• McCain’s Campaign Run by Lobbyists for Communists, Military Dictators and the Oil Monarchy that Gave Us Osama Bin Laden. In the wake of the resignation of two lobbyists for the Burma’s military junta from McCain’s campaign, the New York Sun examines how other lobbyists with senior leadership positions in McCain’s campaign are paid lobbyists for China (Charles Black, his senior adviser) and Saudi Arabia (Thomas Loeffler, his co-chairman). So McCain is calling for a gas tax holiday while his campaign managers are representing Saudi’s best interests? Is that because a gas tax holiday will stoke demand for gas? Such questions are relevant when you have these conflicts of interest.
• Drip, Drip, Drip. Rep. Tom Allen (D-ME) endorses Obama. Since last Tuesday’s primaries in NC and IN, Obama has picked up 20 superdelegates to Hillary’s net of 1.5 (after taking into account several switchers) — that may not be a “flood” as McAuliffe defines it, but a net gain of 18.5 delegates in any primary contest would be a landslide. UPDATE: Obama now up +4, with the endorsements of a DNC official, Senator Akaka (D-HI) and the Idaho State Democratic chair (I believe it’s a wicker).
• No More Fear Factor. Democratic politicians on the Hill and state and local offices no longer fear Hillary — a key turning point that is evident in sharper public criticisms of the Clintons and endorsement switches to Obama.
• Former Rep. Bob Barr (R-GA) to declare himself a Libertarian candidate for president. Presumably any votes for Barr would otherwise be votes for McCain, not Obama. While it’s unlikely he’ll have a material impact in many states, it’s always possible that in a particular swing state, he could cost McCain a victory. There is a faction of the GOP that despises the Bush/Cheney neocon-”imperial executive” approach to governance, and yet many of these voters would be unwilling to vote for Obama. To the extent McCain continues to sell himself as a Bush third term on the neocon agenda, Barr gives these folks an alternative (even if it is a symbolic protest vote).
• “Vino” Fosella’s (R-NY) troubles grow worse by the day. First was the DUI, then the illicit affair and love child, and now word that the feds are investigating his possible use of taxpayer funds for questionable trips abroad. He took an expensive “fact-finding” trip to France alone (”Let’s see, is France still there? Check.”), which is unusual for a Congressional junket, and there are questions about whether he was joined by his mystery woman.
• Hillaryland confirms it’s at least $20M in debt. The campaign has already disclosed it owes Mark Penn $12M and Hillary $11.4M (to repay her loans) — that’s $23.4M. The actual total could easily be over $30M in debt.
• Howard Kurtz gives a lengthy profile on the zen master of the delegate count, Chuck Todd.
• WaPo looks at McCain’s enviromental record, which he plans to play up to woo independent voters, and finds it mixed at best.
• Ben Smith looks at Hillary’s grim options.
• Novak: McCain has a real problem with the evangelical Right.
• Word of the day for Democratic voters who threaten to cross party lines if the candidate they like doesn’t win the nomination: pissenfranchised.
• Oops! New Hillary ad uses newspaper clipping of “TrooperGate” scandal. TrooperGate involved allegations that Arkansas state troopers were told to find “liaisons” for then-Governor Bill Clinton. Is this what happens when you don’t pay your vendors?
• House GOP - Double Agents for Obama? House Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-MO) acknowledges that McCain is running for “Bush’s third term”, and adds with no sense of irony the Seinfeldian qualifier, “There’s nothing wrong with that!”
• Hillary leading in West Virginia and Kentucky by huge margins.
• Missouri among 19 states looking for “proof of citizenship” as a voting requirement to protect America from the likes of geriatric nuns who might destroy our democracy.
• NY Times looks at Karl Rove, Stephanopoulos and other former pols who, in a revolving door similar to the lobbyist game, join the ranks of MSM TV punditry.
• Politico: Obama acting like the nominee. He will be in Missouri the night the WVA returns come in — telegraphing a focus on the general election battle.
• Could the GOP’s dominance in the South be coming to an end?

McCain has suggested that Obama and McCain hold a series of unmoderated town hall-style debates . Obama said it’s a great idea. The New Republic and others say Obama shouldn’t agree to these type of debates because McCain will benefit from the large crowds and buzz, he’ll appear pleasantly moderate instead of a Bush/Cheney clone, and he’ll get free publicity to overcome his fund raising disadvantages to Obama.  I disagree.

I fail to see the “free rider” issue here. There will be debates of some kind no matter what, and both will benefit from the buzz and free publicity.  The issue here is what form of debate do you want to have in front of the large crowds/audiences.

I don’t think the proposal is that the town hall format would be the only method, to the exclusion of all others. I would expect we will also have other debates in the more traditional, moderated style. For one thing, the networks are not going to want to have their anchors shut out of the moderator role. All three of the cable nets now view their political teams and coverage as a key part of their brand identity. So this is really an issue of whether to add these town hall formats to the traditional format. Candidly, neither Obama nor McCain is particularly brilliant in the traditional format. Both have a tendency to come across more stilted than they are when they have the freedom to be informal and conversational. Both may benefit, but that’s okay. In the end, you have to have confidence in your candidate. Because Obama is not as well known as McCain, I think Obama actually benefits more from the debates than McCain. Obama will come across as more youthful and vigorous compared to McCain, and more reasonable and likable than the caricature his enemies will try to paint of him.

Lastly, the style of the proposed unmoderated debates is consistent with Obama’s broader theme of transparency, openness and a willingness to engage in dialogue with opponents. To reject such debates would send a conflicting message. Indeed, it’s possible that McCain hoped Obama would reject such debates so McCain could paint him as a hypocrite or “typical politician.” But now that Obama has seemingly accepted, McCain may regret making the offer. The proposal was McCain’s first strategic error and Obama’s quick acceptance was the right move.

Obama answers a question about free trade. He gives a thorough answer with confidence about the importance of fairness in free trade deals.

• Ellen Goodman offers some Mother’s Day thoughts on Obama’s mom, Anne Dunham.
• In his London Times column, Andrew Sullivan captures the tragedy of how the Clintons came to diss their most loyal supporters.
• Kentucky Lt. Gov. endorses Obama.
• Edwards tells Sunday talk show that Hillary has no chance and in the meantime, shouldn’t say or do anything harmful to the likely Democratic nominee, Obama.



• Second McCain lobbyist with ties to Burma’s (Myanmar’s) evil military junta (which is interfering with international relief to civilians by diverting food to unrelated purposes) resigns from McCain campaign. Yesterday it was Doug Goodyear, today it’s Doug Davenport. I’m just trying to picture their job interview with the McCain campaign: “OK, we need someone who is willing to sell an entrenched 72 year old Washington insider with extensive ties to lobbyists as an honest and bold agent of change. Let’s see, you’ve been spending your time trying to make the most morally repugnant dictators in the world more appealing… Perfect - the job is yours!”
• Obama picks up a new superdelegate on Mother’s Day from California.
• Daily Tracking Polls. Rasmussen reports sharp spike in favor of Obama, giving him a 10-point lead, 52-42%. Gallup also shows a widening margin for Obama, 49-44%.

• Ignatius: Obama’s secret sauce is he’s one cool cat under pressure, like JFK or the Rat Pack of the 60s.
• NY Times explores contrarian notion that perhaps Hillary’s negative attacks have helped Obama. Some points are valid, but one that is wrong is “she led him to the working class.” Obama was serving the working class in Chicago for $12K in salary in the late 80s, when he didn’t even know who Hillary was (and she was a corporate lawyer on Wal-Mart’s board). If they mean she inspired him to go bowling in Altoona, I don’t think that’s anything to brag about.
• Lobbyist for Burma’s evil military junta hired by McCain to run GOP convention quickly resigns.
• Mixed but difficult experience for Hillary supporters in WVA shows how many voters want the contest to end.
• Women’s Voices, Women’s Vote once again intentionally confuses voters with mailing over registration deadline issue, this time in West Virginia. This is after assurances it would clean up its act.
• On Meet the Press, Hillaryland’s Terry McAuliffe concedes Hillary can’t catch Obama in the pledged delegate vote. He also says he’d be willing to split the difference in MI & FL to settle the matter. He insists the party will be united once the voting is done. Argues that Hillary’s comments about “hardworking Americans, White Americans” didn’t mean to imply racist stereotypes about African Americans or discount their importance as voters.
• Frank Rich is spot on: the GOP’s campaign so far wrongly assumes the old political tactics of the past apply to 2008. Hillary made the same misjudgment.
• As an unusually competitive House race in Mississippi looms on Tuesday, the GOP is getting very, very nervous about losing a lot of seats in November.
• GOP pundits acknowledge grim prospects for GOP this year, and difficult consequences for Party’s future.
• Rasmussen poll: Democrats now have largest partisan advantage among voters since Rasmussen began tracking for this six years ago.
• Obama and McCain map fall strategies, particularly on key swing states.
• Saturday’s final superdelegate tally: Obama 5, Hillary 0.
• WaPo/The Trail: Hillary’s fixation on low income, under-educated, older women voters has given short shrift to another large group of voters: middle class independent voters. Oregon is full of them and they are in Obama’s camp (as many have been in other states).
• In a surprising twist, many young evangelicals drawn to Democratic Party over Iraq and social justice issues.
• NY Times lengthy biographical piece on Obama’s rise from Chicago’s South Side.
• Maureen Dowd: Hillary drains Obama of his magical powers; he can’t pick her as his VP.

An avowed Obama supporter challenges Bill Clinton’s account of Hillary’s prior health care task force effort. Clearly the voter gets under Bill’s skin. The best line from Bill is “There’s nobody in America that has more credibility [than Hillary].” Really? Are you sure you want to challenge us to a debate on that question?

Signe Wilkinson. United Press Syndicate.

• Obama and McCain seem to already be in agreement on having unmoderated “town hall” style debates.
• Politico: In case you didn’t notice, GOP is getting crushed by historic proportions in races and polls.
• AP joins other media in giving Obama the lead in superdelegates with his fourth pick-up of the day.
• NY Times Sunday edition has this lengthy biographical piece on Obama.
• Chicago Tribune outlines McCain’s strategy against Obama: pretend it’s 1988, he’s Michael Dukakis, and Americans will fall for stupid political smear stunts. Good luck with that.
• Obama nets three new superdelegates, including another switcher from Hillary.
• Hillary 404 error. Your candidacy cannot be found.
• Daily Tracking Polls. Gallup reports a spike for Obama, 49-44%. Rasmussen has Obama leading Hillary 48-43%. As noted yesterday, Rasmussen announced they will soon stop tracking Hillary v. Obama because they believe the nomination race is over. On the McCain v. Obama front, for the fourth straight day, Obama is viewed more favorably than McCain.
• Bob Herbert tears the Clintons a new one.
• McCain insists we should be guided by the unsolicited opinions of terrorists. Therefore, because a Hamas representative praised John F. Kennedy, JFK must have been a Hamas supporter. Good thing for McCain the Hamas representative didn’t also express his fondness for Vicki Iseman, the Arizona Diamondbacks and private jet travel.
• Howard Wolfson defends Hillary’s racially charged comments and believes Hillary’s base of under-educated, low income White women over 65 makes her the stronger candidate.
• John Edwards unapologetically admits to voter fraud by voting twice in NC primary: once for Hillary and once for Obama. (Or maybe he let slip he voted for Obama and doesn’t want to admit it.)
• NY Times notes McCain’s untenable position on Cindy’s finances remaining hidden, given the campaign’s use of her private plane at subsidized low cost, among other things. But the Times does so in a buried side article so small it doesn’t make the online edition. Here’s a prior NYT article on the campaign’s use of her plane, before she confirmed that she wouldn’t release her financial records.
• Boston Globe African American columnist Derrick Jackson unloads on Hillary for her recent remarks about “hardworking Americans, white Americans.”
• House GOP to moms: drop dead.
• Number of acceptable things candidates can say now down to four.
• New LA Times poll shows McCain losing to either Hillary or Obama, and evidence of significant slippage since February, when McCain led the Democrats. And this is before the Democrats have started their general election campaign.
• NY Times joins ABC in declaring Obama has more superdelegates than Hillary.
• Obama now all about McCain.
• See Hillary’s powerpoint presentation to uncommitted House superdelegates: “Winning in the hardworking American, White American districts.”
• WaPo says Black community is increasingly protective of Obama.
• Obama might cover Hillary’s campaign debts.
• Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), an uncommitted superdelegate, says Obama reached “the tipping point” sometime around Midnight Tuesday night.