Daily Tidbits: June 27, 2008

• Obama interviews with Black Enterprise magazine (link here). Discusses Michelle, Iraq, public financing, and other matters.
• Obama to travel to Britain, France, Germany, Afghanistan and Iraq in mid-July.

• Unity in Unity. Hillary’s money quote: “In the end, Sen. McCain and President Bush are like two sides of the same coin, and it doesn’t amount to a whole lot of change.“
• New Jersey a Swing State? Fairly Unlikely. Fairleigh Dickinson U. poll gives Obama a 16-point lead in the Garden State, 49-33%. If McCain can’t clear 1/3 of NJ voters, he shouldn’t waste a dime in this expensive media state.

• This is why Richardson will not be Obama’s VP: he’s got the message discipline of Homer with a box of donuts.
• A GOP internal review of its losses in three recent special elections in conservative House districts, obtained by the AP, reveals that the GOP is advising its candidates to avoid the negative perception of the national GOP brand, portray themselves as independents, and focus on local issues. In other words… RUN AWAY!

• The respected polling analysis site 538 recalibrates its model to take into account the historical tightening of races in their final weeks and projects Obama will win popular vote by approximately 4% and win the electoral college convincingly by 320-218. Obama wins all of Kerry’s states of 2004, plus flips the following red states of that election blue: Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Colorado. Obama also comes close but short in Missouri, Nevada and Florida. As the projected electoral result suggests, just flipping Ohio would be enough – the others are all gravy.
• Slight widening of margin for Obama in Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll, with Obama leading 47-40%.
• New Gallup poll shows Obama leads McCain in nearly every key “character” related issue.
• To great relief of women everywhere, McCain tells the Las Vegas Sun he stopped beating his wife weeks ago.
• Peggy Noonan, Spot On. I’ve always believed that electing a president appeals to a very primitive part of the brain — the selection of a leader. Successful candidates recognize this and effectively communicate at this level subliminally. Think Reagan’s message of bold leadership in 1980 that contrasted with the dour Carter, and Clinton’s passion to win in ‘92 that contrasted with Bush 41 looking at his watch, bored, during the debates. Peggy Noonan captures the message McCain is communicating: a sense that he’s already achieved what he wanted — to be the top dog of the GOP — and that he doesn’t really need to be president. She says Bob Dole conveyed the same mixed message in 1996, voters sensed it and reelected Clinton. I agree with her. By not working weekends, changing his campaign’s slogan multiple times, jumping from issue to issue daily without a clear and consistent broader theme, flirting with the idea of only serving one term, and his lack of passion on the stump, collectively send this indirect and decidedly mixed message of fatigue and entitlement. It’s no surprise that McCain’s supporters have an “enthusiasm” gap as a result. Noonan suggests that if McCain is allowed to be the old funny, sarcastic McCain of yore, perhaps he can turn things around. But it’s too late for that. You can’t go back to the more informal days of when McCain was a senator in a safe seat with the freedom to do and say what he wanted. It’s high stakes time, and McCain has to follow message discipline. But doing so suppresses his strengths as a candidate. He’s stuck.

• Is McCain Blessed with Elastigirl’s Powers? Shortly after privately meeting with the gay Log Cabin group, McCain meets privately with conservative leaders in Ohio and assures them he’ll be more outspoken about his opposition to gay marriage. McCain is once again sending simultaneously contradictory messages intended to appeal beyond his base to moderates and independent voters while reassuring the right wing GOP base. It’s a task fit for a superhero like Elastigirl to twist yourself to perform two opposing goals at the same time. Of course, a little secrecy helps, too, and both the Log Cabin meeting and the meeting with conservative leaders in Ohio were private.
• Grab a Surfboard or Drown. Since the Pennsylvania primary, the Democratic momentum has continued, with over 40,000 new Democratic Party registrants, and a net loss of 1,500 GOP registrants.
• New Time poll gives Obama a 43-38% lead. While this is an unusually low number for Obama, McCain’s 38% is consistent with his wider struggle to eclipse 40% in the state and national polls. If his ceiling solidifies at this level, McCain will suffer the same fate as Hillary, who could never bust through her ceiling of 45%.
• Senate fails to pass Medicare legislation thanks to 40 GOP votes against it. The bill needed one more vote to move forward, and McCain was absent campaigning in Ohio (Obama was in DC and voted for it).
• Hill Dems launch attack on McCain on Thursday.
• Politico: GOP’s strategy against Obama is to portray Obama as “conventional politician who always takes the safe and easy political road, then amplify the distinction by framing McCain as a patriot, somebody who has put sacrifice above self.” Safe easy road? The son of several generations of admirals who attended an elite prep school, and followed in daddy’s footsteps in the Navy and had doors opened for him in the Navy that he didn’t deserve on the basis of his performance, and who dumped his first wife for an enormously wealthy, younger woman, didn’t take the safe and easy road? And Obama, who was raised by a single mom and his grandparents in financially modest conditions, and who on his own initiative was elected as state senator and later the only African American in the U.S. Senate and now the first African American nominee of a major political party, has taken the safe, easy road?
• Veep prospect Gov. Jindal signs state law requiring chemical castration of men convicted of sexual crimes. Law also requires castrated genitals to be hung on burning stakes placed along borders of the state to send a message to all ye who dare to enter. Okay, maybe not that last part, but only because they didn’t think of it…
• WaPo: Clinton fundraisers impressed with Obama’s remarks to them at joint Hillary-Obama event in DC, and are pleasantly surprised how much progress has been made so quickly towards unity.
• George Will: Both of Thursday’s Supreme Court decisions (DC gun law and the election law cases) hurt McCain and help Obama.
• NY Times: Obama taking pragmatic steps towards the center. He’s always been pragmatic. He’s a legislator who has touted his ability to work across party lines to get things done. That means compromise.
• On night that Obama met with Hillary’s major donors in DC, Obama wrote Hillary a check for $2,300 to help her with her debt as a good will gesture.