Daily Tidbits: June 14, 2008

• Tim Russert’s life described: NY Times, WaPo’s Tom Shales, WaPo’s Dan Balz, WaPo Op-Ed (“A Death in the Family”), LA Times, and Boston Globe.
• What Today’s Polling Data Reveals. According to Rasmussen, Obama’s Unity Bounce is holding steady. Obama leads 47-40%, and with “leaners” included, he leads 49-43% (a slight drop for McCain). The significant datapoint here is that McCain, representing the incumbent party in power, is barely over 40%. That’s very troubling for the GOP. In terms of favorability, Obama is viewed more favorably (55%) and less unfavorably (44%) than McCain, who is viewed 52% favorably and 45% unfavorably. There’s also more passion on the Obama side: 32% view Obama “Very Favorably” but only 16% view McGrumpy Very Favorably. Rasmussen also affirms other data showing Obama leading significantly in the Electoral College. One last interesting bit of data, Obama v. McCain is demographically similar to Obama v. Hillary: McCain’s strongest supporters are older voters and his weakest are younger voters (and Obama is the opposite). Gallup’s daily tracking poll, however, shows the race tightening to 45-42%. It’s hard to explain the disparity in Obama’s number in the Gallup poll (Rasmussen has consistently shown Obama’s between 47-50% since Hillary dropped out) — it could be based on any number of varying turn-out assumptions. But what is consistent between Gallup and Rasmussen is McCain’s number in the low 40s. Again, McCain is the better known quantity, representing the incumbent party controlling the White House and supporting Bush’s most significant policies on Iraq, energy, taxes, health care, social security, etc. If the low 40s solidifies as his ceiling, he will suffer the same fate as Hillary, who could never break above the mid-40s nationally despite having all of the advantages of being the better known establishment candidate. In a change year, the Bush legacy, which McCain is refusing to substantively reject, is functioning as McCain’s cement shoes.
• Is McCain running for Bush’s Third Term? McCain is debating this point with himself:

• The NRA is about to launch a campaign against Obama, but evidence suggests its power has waned. It’s no longer the hot button issue it was 20 years ago.
• In Pennsylvania with Governor Rendell and Philly Mayor Nutter (both former Hillary supporters), Obama slams McCain and proposes significant middle class tax cut.
• McCain and Obama’s senate financial disclosures track what we’ve learned from their campaigns. Obama is personally debt-free and has prudently socked away $200K for his kids’ college education fund. Obama has run an efficient campaign that has raised record amounts without burning cash on frivolous expenses. By contrast, McCain, who ran out of money and nearly destroyed his candidacy earlier, has over $220K in credit card debt. This from the guy who admits he doesn’t understand economics. But he and his heiress wife have been living off of her inherited beer distribution fortune, and so such vast credit card debt is just monopoly money to them.  Who is out of touch with real Americans?
• LA Times: McCain’s senate disclosure form reveals quite a bit of financial activity by his wife Cindy in the last year.
• Giuliani to GOP: I’ll campaign for you, but it’ll cost ya.
• The McCain Way to Your Heart. McCain, who apparently is seeking the votes of women who were formerly Hillary supporters, had planned a fundraiser at the home of Texas oilman Clayton Williams, who as GOP governor famously advised women attacked by rape to “lie back and enjoy it” and said he would tie up and drag Gov. Ann Richards like cattle. Oddly enough, McCain canceled the event. Perhaps a scheduling conflict coincidentally arose…
• Meanwhile, here’s a report on McCain’s efforts to attract former Hillary-backing women.