Hillary Drama Recap and Thoughts on Obama’s Veep (Updated)

Why Did Hillary Decide to Drop Out? The lifeblood of any politician is to always have your finger on the pulse of your constituents. If you lose touch, you’re in danger of making a grave mistake. Hillary assumed her narcissistic anger and denial over her loss, which was shared by her most fervent supporters, was also shared by what is currently her most important constituency: the superdelegates who had endorsed her. She thought they’d rise up in anger and demand that Obama name her as VP. That is why she asked Bob Johnson to try to persuade the Congressional Black Caucus to lobby Obama on her behalf, and asked Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) to draft a letter on behalf of women Congressmen along the same lines. That is why she approved her hired gun, Lanny Davis, launching a misguided online petition to drum up popular support for her to be selected as VP by Obama. That is why she had Terry McAuliffe introduce her on national television last night as the next president of the United States on Obama’s historic night. That is why she went on to describe herself as a better candidate than Obama to face John McCain. All these petty efforts backfired.

Her most loyal supporters in the House and Senate were furious with her. They are Democrats first. They were elected by their constituents as Democrats. They need to answer to their own constituents who were asking why they wouldn’t endorse Obama. These elected Clinton supporters demanded she drop out so they could be released from their commitment and join Obama in a show of party unity. Hillary thought her leverage would grow with each passing day, but in fact her leverage — her “18 million voters” — was declining with each passing day that she refused to endorse.

Why Won’t She Be Obama’s Veep? Remember the almost bizarre over-reaction by the Clintons to the Vanity Fair article by Dee Dee Myers husband when the story first broke? The normal reaction by a public figure to a negative magazine article or book is to ignore it. The last thing you want to do is give it more publicity and boost its sales. But the Clintons immediately issued a lengthy, detailed, overwrought rebuttal memo lambasting the piece and defensively restating all the good works Bill Clinton has done around the world since he became an ex-president. Then Bill threw gas on the flames by calling the author “sleazy” and a “scumbag” to the infamous blogger-reporter Mayhill Fowler. The over-reaction makes more sense now. The Vanity Fair story detailed the unseemly conduct and questionable relationships of Bill Clinton since his presidency. In other words, it was a road map for anyone wishing to vet the Clintons in connection with selecting Hillary as Veep. The story had to have its credibility destroyed if she was going to have any shot at the job.

The angry rebuttal reflected their desperation as they saw her chances as Veep slipping away. Obama’s team apparently made it clear that they would expect all Veep candidates to submit to full vetting, and in Hillary’s case, the vetting would include all the financial information about the donors to the Clinton Presidential Library. Obama’s team said if Bill refuses to consent to the vetting, it would be a deal-breaker. With Bill’s refusal to comply, that’s the end of her Veep chances.

Another hint that she was not going to be Veep was today’s announcement that Caroline Kennedy and Eric Holder were joining Jim Johnson on Obama’s Veep vetting team. As Al Giordano noted, the selection of Kennedy is not a positive signal for Hillary, given Caroline’s pivotal early endorsement of Obama over Hillary and the anger of the Kennedy family over Hillary’s bizarre RFK assassination remark (although Hillary supporter RFK, Jr. publicly stated he wasn’t bothered, the rest of the family was apparently furious). The fact that Eric Holder, who knew the Clintons quite well as the Deputy AG during the Clinton Administration, was also an early endorser of Obama is also not a good sign. Obama is going to take his time, vet the candidates and select the someone he think will help him win and be a good team player in his administration.

Who Will Be Obama’s VP Choice? I’ve posted several times that Obama’s comments about Al Gore playing a leading role in his administration could be a hint that he will be Obama’s choice as Veep. It is interesting that Gore has yet to endorse Obama — the only big fish among the Democrats who has yet to come off the sidelines with an endorsement. He’s not going to simply issue a press release — his endorsement warrants a bigger media event. Perhaps it is being saved for a larger announcement… his selection as VP.

I continue to think he would be a brilliant choice, if Gore would accept it. Gore has more gravitas in the party than any other veteran Democrat, and would have a unique ability to pull together both the Obama and Hillary wings of the party without importing the Clintons’ drama onto the ticket. I think Obama’s greatest weakness is not his alleged inexperience, his name, his former church or the email slander about him – it’s the fact that he’s relatively unknown by many Americans. There are only five months left to run a general election campaign — that’s not much time to introduce another relative unknown to America.

As great as Sebelius might be, she is even less known than Obama. The same is true of Jim Webb, Ted Strickland, Ed Rendell, Janet Napolitano and other names that have been floated. Gore, by contrast, is well known. He’s been a better ex-VP than Bill has been an ex-president, which is no small accomplishment. Who would McCain offer to counter him? Jindal? Whitman? Pawlenty? They’re all lightweights compared to Gore. (Romney and Huckabee aren’t lightweights, but are still minor league compared to Gore).

The only issue is whether Gore would take the job. Gore’s kids are grown and he now has more money than he can spend. What I suspect he misses is the ability — the power — to make the changes he wants to make. Sure, he can make documentaries about global warming and sit on the boards of exciting technology companies, but he really can’t affect broad policy changes while in the private sector. If Obama gave him a wide portfolio cutting across all cabinet agencies to do whatever is necessary to address climate change, that could be quite an inducement. Perhaps he might also want authority over telecom and technology (as he had during the Clinton Administration). Gore could be a drama-free partner to a historic administration. He would have a Democratic Party-controlled House and Senate to work with and a President with a less divisive and more pragmatic approach than Bill and Hillary had in the 90s. In short, he could actually get stuff done. And he could virtually guarantee the election of Obama, which would make him a part of a history.

That’s not to say Obama could not win with others. Chris Dodd, Tom Daschle, any one of the three state-wide Democrats of Virginia (Mark Warner, Tim Kaine and Jim Webb) and Bill Richardson, among others, all have very positive attributes. But none of them is as established nationally and could rally Hillary’s consituency behind Obama as well as Al Gore could.

UPDATE (6/5): Obama says late today in an interview with CNN that he views his VP to “be my final counselor when I’m making decisions in the White House.” This view is entirely consistent with his larger vision. He’s not going to play the old game of picking someone simply for geographic or demographic reasons, and then not talk to him or her for the next 4 or 8 years. He wants someone he can trust and respect as a business partner. This means forget about Ted Strickland of Ohio and Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania — not happening. Forget Napolitano, who would obviously be picked because of her gender and to stick it to McCain in his home state. But I wouldn’t rule out Sen. Claire McCaskill, who has been a loyal and effective fighter during this campaign (and could have her successor appointed by a Democratic governor in MO, where state AG Nixon is expected to win decisively in November), or Mark Warner, who is smart and shares Obama’s philosophy of non-divisive pragmatic politics that would make an excellent fit. Warner could simultaneously run for the VA senate seat, win it, and then have his successor appointed for a full term by Obama-loyalist Governor Tim Kaine.

UPDATE (6/7): Apparently Gore, who still has not made an endorsement, has made a statement that he will not serve in an Obama Administration.