Daily Tidbits: April 23, 2008

Cheers!

• In midst of recession, GOP senators block pay discrimination bill.
• Hillary’s net haul in delegates from PA: only 10. (Obama gained two more super delegates the next day).
• Poll Finds Hillary More Condescending Than Obama. Gallup poll finds more Americans find Hillary condescending to both “average Americans” and “working class” than Obama.
• Apparently Bill Clinton can’t stand the heat.
• Thursday’s NY Times profiles Democratic voters’ mixed feelings about prolonged contest.
• Second super delegate du jour joins Team Obama.
• Perhaps a bit too much self-congratulations over the “win-win”/”good cop-bad cop” routine from the GOP chattering class discussing the NC GOP ad playing up racial fears. McCain denounced the ad, but the NC GOP runs the ad anyway, which attracts more publicity to it. McCain is seemingly left with plausible deniability. I guess the McCain folks don’t fear the MSM calling them out on this. Given the track record of the MSM giving McCain every benefit of the doubt, they’ve probably bet wisely.
• Meanwhile, McCain manages to only win 72% of the GOP vote despite having Republican nomination won. That’s a fairly healthy chunk of the base who found it worth their time to lodge protests votes for Huckabee and Ron Paul.
• Sheryl Crow, fully recovered from the Bosnian sniper fire trip with Sinbad and Hillary, endorses “Barak” Obama.
• 49 prominent supporters of John Edwards endorse Obama, including the Edwards campaign’s former National General Chairman.
• Numbers Don’t Lie. Is McCain bumping against a ceiling of 45%?
• Obama campaign denies WaPo’s anonymous source that Obama plans to go negative on Hillary and dredge up the Clinton scandals of the 1990s.
• Bush Makes History. This nugget was buried by Pennsylvania coverage: Bush’s disapproval rating is 69% – a new “high” in the history of Gallup polling. Today, Gallup’s “quarterly” approval rating for Bush hit a new low of 31.3%. Bush hit a record daily low for his administration of 28% on April 11.
• Daily Tracking Polls. Rasmussen has Obama ahead, 48-43%. That’s a slight improvement for Hillary from yesterday. Gallup shows Obama’s percentage unchanged, while Hillary garners a slight uptick, 50-42%. Although these are national polls, it’s interesting that both showed a slight uptick for Hillary yesterday as Pennsylvanians voted. Perhaps this trend correlates with undecideds once again breaking for Hillary in yesterday’s primary.
• Another super delegate for Obama, former OK Governor Brad Henry. Hillary matches with endorsement of Rep. Tanner of Tennessee.
• PA primary result consistent with Obama campaign’s forecast in its famous leaked strategy memo of February 6, in which it predicted losses in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.
• Politico’s exit poll analysis: why Clinton won PA.
• Victory Margin – Perception vs. Reality. Hillary’s final margin of victory was single digits — 9% — but only after it appeared firm at 10% for the latter part of the evening’s returns, so much of the print press ran with stories of a 10-point margin and Hillary appeared in interviews on the network morning shows repeating the “double-digit” victory mantra. It may seem like splitting hairs, but such optics are at the heart of Hillary’s campaign to persuade uncommitted super delegates. PA Secretary of State near-final tally as of 10:20am in PA is H-54.3, O-45.7. That’s a margin of 8.6% (or 9%).
• Chuck Todd’s analysis: In 2002, Rendell beat Bob Casey in the gubernatorial Democratic primary by winning only 10 of 67 PA counties. It was very much like Obama v. Hillary, but ironically with Rendell supported by same folks supporting Obama (urban, better educated, younger folks and minorities) while Casey was supported by folks in Hillary’s camp (rural, Catholic, working class, high school educated). Obama won 7 counties. Big difference was Rendell won large Philly suburbs of Montgomery and Bucks, and Obama lost them. Todd says white women were the reason for Obama’s surprise loss in the Philly suburbs. Obama won voters under 40, Hillary won those over 40. PA is the second oldest state in the country, demographically (roughly 1/3 of the state is over age 65). (As a side note, PA has never elected a person of color to statewide office, including failed 2006 GOP gubernatorial candidate, and NFL Hall of Famer, Lynn Swann.)
• Andrew Sullivan: the worst possible result for Democrats.
• Hillary likely picked up 12 delegates in PA.
• Obama’s concession speech in Evansville, IN may suggest no more Mr. Nice Guy. Aides speak of bringing up Hillary’s past record in the 1990s since the GOP would likely do same in general election.
• Exit polls suggest prolonged battle is hurting Democratic Party.
• Measured against her Ohio victory, Hillary slipped in every demographic category.
• Victory breathes new life into Hillary’s campaign.
• NY Times editorial slams Hillary’s “low road” campaign.