Election 2008: The New Hampshire Primary Results

 

New Hampshire showed its independent streak last night – knocking down Huckabee and Obama from their Iowa victories, and further deflating Iowa runners-up Romney and Edwards. Let’s chat about what happened last night and why, for the candidates of both parties.

The Democrats

Hillary won among declared Democrats, women and seniors. Obama won independents, young people and men. The problem for Obama was that, unlike Iowa, the turnout among young people was no greater than 2004 and 2000, but the turnout among registered Democrats, women and seniors was at record levels. Obama won a majority of voters interested in “change” those seeking someone who could “unite” the country, but Hillary won among those who viewed “experience” as decisive, and apparently there were more of the latter than the former. In addition, despite the fact that concern about the economy was a top issue among New Hampshire voters, both Edwards and Obama failed to win these voters – Clinton landed them.

Let’s first stipulate to the Obama bounce – it was real. Numerous reports detailed how Clinton campaign workers were expecting a blowout and already planning on making changes in campaign leadership to right the ship. Indeed, the Clinton “victory party” location was moved from a large location to a more modest space in the expectation of defeat.

It’s hard to point to any one decisive cause, but in such a close race, even factors like the weather matter. It was unseasonably mild in New Hampshire yesterday – that could be as much an explanation as any for the large turnout of seniors (who might otherwise have difficulty getting out to vote) and the underwhelming response of young voters (who may have decided to enjoy the great weather during winter break instead of spending hours in line to vote).

Why is it women in New Hampshire were more inclined to support Hillary than Iowans? Perhaps it had something to do with New Hampshire’s history of electing women to senior positions (e.g., governor, state house speaker, and state senate president). Iowa, by contrast, is apparently one of only two states in the nation (the other being that paragon of progressivism, Mississippi) to not elect a woman to Congress or as governor. New Hampshire voters (and women in particular) are apparently more comfortable with voting for women to high office.

But let’s take a closer look at what transpired over the weekend. Given the short period between the Iowa and New Hampshire voting, Saturday night’s debate was pivotal. Who was home Saturday night willing to watch several hours of back-to-back GOP/Democratic presidential debates: young people or old people? Well, ABC’s Metamucil commercials were a good clue. The fact that Hillary later won the senior vote suggests something went wrong for Obama that night (or went right for Hillary).

The viewers turned on their TVs Saturday night hoping to understand if Obama was worth all the hype. After all, many had seen his incredible victory speech in Iowa and were probably excited to see him again. But Obama looked very tired at the debate and played it safe. He missed an opportunity to build on his Iowa performance by introducing himself to new and undecided voters, and to build on his momentum. Indeed, given Hillary’s attacks that she had the much stronger record of experience and presented “real change,” as opposed to Obama’s alleged “false hope” – he should have been better prepared to respond persuasively.

Edwards was the real aggressor at the debate. He is the one who attacked Hillary as the “status quo” and prompted her infamous angry rebuttal. Meanwhile, when Charles Gibson brought up the fact that Obama was more likeable among New Hampshire voters than Hillary, Obama blew an easy opportunity to take the high road. He could have said “I like you, Hillary” and it would have been a light moment that reflected well on him. Instead, he said, “I think you’re likeable enough, Hillary.” Now, I think he meant to tease her – not to be mean – but it was hard to tell since he was looking down as he said it. In any event, he misjudged the mood of the moment. It didn’t help that immediately after the debate, George Stephanopoulos replayed that moment and said “Not Obama’s best moment – I thought it made him look small.” Stephanopoulos did this again on his own “This Week” show the next morning. Many voters probably deferred to Stephanopoulos’s negative view. Many New Hampshire women likely identified with her at that moment and reacted negatively towards Obama.

A lot has been said about Hillary’s “near-cry” on Monday. Less has been said about the comments Edwards made about it afterwards. He really dumped on her, arguing that a president can’t cry in these challenging times. Whether there is merit to his comment or not, I imagine many women felt Edwards kicked Hillary when she was down. His comment, following his debate offensive, could explain why those who jumped off the Edwards bus went to Hillary instead of Obama. They chose her because Obama had seemingly been a part of the tag-team effort against her at the debate, and there was a rise in sympathy for her.

As a more modest factor, voters that had supported old Washington insiders Biden and Dodd were probably inclined to value experience over Obama’s change message, and since they dropped out after Iowa, their followers in New Hampshire probably chose Hillary over Obama. That’s not a lot of voters, but she only won by 3%. In addition, let’s not forget that Obama benefited, and Hillary was hurt, by the arcane Iowa caucus system where candidates who were not “viable” swung their block of delegates to another candidate who was viable.

Finally, independents failed to go to Obama in huge numbers because McCain largely held his own among them with 40% of their votes. Many thought Obama would take the lion’s share of independent voters, but McCain’s late surge (excuse the pun) and personal popularity among independents in New Hampshire was strong enough to prevent this from happening.

Hillary’s strength among registered Democrats that she demonstrated in both Iowa and New Hampshire spells trouble for Obama as he heads to primaries that are closed to independents. Don’t forget that the deck is stacked against insurgent campaigns to start with, with the “superdelegates” reserved for party insiders as a hedge against the perils of democracy. Hillary will have the edge with the superdelegates. The question is, will Obama walk the path of RFK, Eugene McCarthy, Gary Hart, and John Anderson — someone that captures the heart of voters early but is defeated by the establishment candidate? Or will he break through?

The Republicans

New Hampshire might be in Romney’s backyard, but McCain has a special relationship with New Hampshire voters. Up against the wall following his defeat in Iowa, Romney had no choice but go negative on McCain over the weekend, and it didn’t work. Worse, when he was piled on at the New Hampshire debate on Saturday night, he reacted in a humorless and prickly manner. It could have been an opportunity to appear sympathetic or strong, but he simply came across as a jerk. McCain got the best of him in the immigration argument when he forced Romney to deny ever using the term “amnesty” in his attack ads, which was quickly proven false the next day by the MSM (he ran two TV ads that attacked McCain for supporting “amnesty”). That episode did nothing to dispel the narrative that Romney is a “phony” (as charged by New Hampshire’s print media). Interestingly, Romney did very well among those voters who feel strongly about illegal immigration, but there simply weren’t enough voters of this sort to make a difference for Romney. Given Romney’s failure to get traction on this issue, Tancredo’s early exit, and McCain’s success, expect illegal immigration to lose its steam as a GOP wedge issue.

Huckabee found himself a fish out of water, with far fewer evangelical voters in New Hampshire than Iowa. He tried to focus on economic populist issues, but instead he came across as a little goofy parading around with Chuck Norris. He remains a talented communicator and should not be underestimated, however, despite his poor performance.

Last night the MSM tried to salvage Rudy’s second straight horrible performance by parroting his campaign’s talking points that the chaos is all part of his brilliant little plan, which will fall into place once he wins in Florida. The problem is he is in a distant fourth place in Florida polls. And as for this notion that he didn’t give New Hampshire a real effort, he actually spent more time and money in New Hampshire than nearly any other candidate. McCain now owns the national security message and Rudy’s “9/11” mantra has become a pathetic joke. His pulse is only a hair stronger than Fred Thompson’s.

As we move on, I have my doubts about McCain. His speech was absolutely terrible last night. He’s been showing his age this entire campaign. His victory could very well reflect a combination of nostalgia and distaste of Romney than a ringing endorsement. Romney is badly damaged goods and Huckabee has yet to prove he can do well outside his evangelical base. Add to this mess the fact that the GOP turnout has been significantly lower in both Iowa and New Hampshire. It should be a messy road to Minneapolis for the GOP.

Clean Fighting Machine

Pardon my tangent, but what is it with older white guys calling Obama “clean” lately? Does it mean Obama is a lean guy with GQ looks? Or is it supposed to be taken literally, like they’ve been sniffing around Obama like a bunch of unleashed dogs? Last night, Chris Matthews breathlessly referred to Obama as “clean” during MSNBC’s coverage of the New Hampshire primary. Over the weekend, conservative columnist Bob Novak said Obama “isn’t like other African Americans … he’s so clean.” Previously, Biden referred to Obama as “clean and articulate.” Now, granted that all of these guys were, in their ham-handed way, trying to spit out some kind of compliment at the time (as Obama said about Biden’s remark). But this compliment seems to carry a lot of funky baggage with it – implying that somehow some or most African Americans are not clean and Obama by contrast is clean. Look, I’m not qualified to probe the heart of darkness of white boomers’ souls, but can someone tell them to get a clue?

Here’s another helpful video collection capturing the Obama-Hillary battle over the last few days, from TPM: